Every decision begins with a picture of reality. Whether we are investors assessing geopolitical risk, business leaders evaluating new markets, policymakers designing regulation or analysts forecasting economic trends, we all begin from an understanding of what we believe is happening.

But reality rarely arrives untouched. Facts rarely speak for themselves. They are interpreted through narratives, historical memory, institutional trust and strategic interests. Before we assess a situation, someone has often already framed it.

This is why strategic decision-making begins long before the decision itself. It begins with the narrative through which reality is understood. 

Narratives are not the opposite of facts

The word narrative is often misunderstood. It is sometimes used as a synonym for propaganda or misinformation which is too simplistic way of explaining it. 

Narratives are the frameworks through which people organise facts into meaning. They determine which events receive attention, which historical experiences are remembered, which actors are portrayed as legitimate and who are not. 

The strategic question is therefore not only whether a story is true or false, instead the more important question is:

Which perspectives does it illuminate? Which perspectives does it leave out? And how does that influence decisions?

Strategic decisions are shaped by strategic stories

History offers countless examples and to name a few historically known people we can start with Mary Magdalene who became associated with prostitution despite there being no clear biblical basis for that image. The narrative endured for centuries because it served institutional and cultural purposes. Another known person is the 18th century king of Sweden, Gustav III, who is often remembered as the theatrical king fascinated by masquerades and rather silly, while his geopolitical strategy and statecraft receive far less attention. More recently, conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific demonstrate how competing narratives influence international legitimacy, public opinion, sanctions, investment decisions and diplomatic relationships. 

These examples do not suggest that facts are irrelevant. Rather, they show that facts gain strategic significance only when they are interpreted, framed and connected to a broader understanding of reality.

Why this matters for leaders

For leaders, this means recognising that strategic environments are shaped not only by current events, but also by history, political memory and competing narratives. The same development may carry different meanings in Warsaw, Brussels, Washington, Seoul or Stockholm. Understanding those differences is essential, because overlooking them can distort analysis, weaken judgement and create strategic risk.

Narrative awareness as a strategic capability

Perhaps one of the most valuable capabilities for leaders today is not simply critical thinking, but narrative awareness.

To ask:

Who is telling this story?

Why this story?

Why now?

Which interests does this framing serve?

Which perspectives remain absent?

These questions do not replace facts.

They strengthen our ability to interpret them.

In an era of geopolitical competition, strategic communication and accelerating information flows, organisations need more than information, they also need orientation. Because the greatest strategic risk is not always lacking information instead it is believing that information arrives without perspective. 

Göteborg 2026-06-29

Anna Jäderström